Grading Kevin Kelly’s The Inevitable 10 Years Later
I was struck by this recent post on X. The idea of instant cognition and a kind of pervasive surveillance immediately reminded me of futurist Kevin Kelly’s 2016 book The Inevitable, which I read at the time and very much liked because it felt about right:
RIP Privacy — AI Glasses Can Now Recognize Anyone, Anywhere.
— Pascal Bornet (@pascal_bornet) December 6, 2025
A Dutch journalist just tested a pair of AI-powered glasses that can instantly identify strangers on the street.
No government database. No police system. Just public data and off-the-shelf AI.
You look at someone… pic.twitter.com/AUPu2AoekE
It dawned on me that this is a great time to run a retrospective on the book because 2016 feels like a different geological epoch compared to today. Back then, “AI” usually meant a slightly smarter NPC in a video game or Google Maps rerouting you around traffic.
Kevin Kelly’s central thesis in The Inevitable was that technology is a biological force. It has a direction it wants to go. You can’t stop the river, but you can steer the boat.
Here is an informal, 2025-era report card on how those 12 forces have aged now that we are roughly one-third of the way through his 30-year window.
1. Becoming#
The Prediction: Everything is in a constant state of “beta.” Nothing is ever finished. We are all perpetual “newbies” because as soon as we master a tool, it upgrades or is replaced. We move from a fixed world to a flowing world of “protopia” (slow, incremental improvement).
The Reality: A+ If you have opened an app only to find the UI completely rearranged for no reason, you have felt this. We don’t “own” software anymore; we subscribe to a service that morphs while we sleep. The concept of “finished” products is dead. Games are released broken and patched later. Teslas get new features over the air. We are all exhausted newbies, just as Kelly predicted.
2. Cognifying#
The Prediction: We will take x and add AI to it. AI will become a utility, like electricity, cheap and flowing from the cloud.
The Reality: A++ (The Valedictorian) Kelly nailed this harder than perhaps any other futurist. In 2016, this sounded like sci-fi. In 2025, with the explosion of LLMs (ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude) and generative models, we are literally “adding AI” to everything: spreadsheets, emails, coding, dating apps, and fridges. The “utility” model is exactly how it played out and we pay for API tokens just like we pay for kilowatt-hours.
3. Flowing#
The Prediction: We are moving from static nouns (files, desktops, rigid pages) to fluid verbs (streams, feeds, tags, clouds).
The Reality: A The “feed” is now the dominant way humanity consumes culture. TikTok, Reels, and infinite scrolling are the ultimate realization of this. However, Kelly was very optimistic about the “cloud” making us feel liberated. In reality, the “flow” has created a firehose of content that is drowning us, leading to a counter-movement of people craving static, finished, offline things (like the resurgence of vinyl and physical books).
4. Screening#
The Prediction: We will become “People of the Screen.” Text will move from paper to glass. Every flat surface will eventually become a screen.
The Reality: B+ We are definitely glued to screens, but the “every surface is a screen” future hasn’t fully arrived. We don’t have smart cornflakes boxes yet. However, the shift in literacy he predicted, where “reading” becomes “watching”, is undeniable. The primary mode of learning for Gen Z and Alpha is YouTube/TikTok video essays, not textbooks. The “B+” is only because VR/AR (screens on your face) is still finding its footing (Vision Pro, Quest) and hasn’t replaced the smartphone.
5. Accessing#
The Prediction: Ownership is overrated. Access is better. You won’t own your car, your music, or your movies. “Uber for X.”
The Reality: A- Technically true. We stream Spotify and Netflix rather than buying MP3s or DVDs. But the sentiment has soured. The “subscription fatigue” is real. People are realizing that “accessing” means “renting forever,” and if you stop paying, you lose your life’s library. The “You will own nothing and be happy” meme (often conflated with this trend) has become a rallying cry against this force.
I have seen more than a few of these types of videos lately:
6. Sharing#
The Prediction: Collaboration on a massive scale. The “digital socialism” of Wikipedia and open-source code.
The Reality: B “Sharing” morphed into “Performing.” Kelly envisioned a communal utopia (Wikipedia style). What we got was the Creator Economy (YouTube/TikTok style). We are sharing more than ever, but it’s often commodified, algorithmic, and driven by profit rather than pure communal collaboration. Open Source (especially in AI) is currently a massive battleground, so the spirit lives on there.
7. Filtering#
The Prediction: In a world of infinite abundance, the only scarcity is human attention. We need aggressive filters (algorithms) to show us what we want.
The Reality: A (but it’s a dark A!) The algorithms run the world. We don’t choose what to watch; the “For You” page chooses for us. Kelly was right that this is inevitable, but he was perhaps too optimistic about us having control over the filters. Right now, the filters are optimized for engagement (often outrage), not necessarily our well-being.
8. Remixing#
The Prediction: Unbundling and recombination. Copyright will be challenged as everything is sampled, memed, and modified.
The Reality: A+ Generative AI is the ultimate remix machine. It ingests the entire internet and remixes it into new art and text. TikTok is built entirely on remixing audio. The legal battles Kelly foresaw (copyright vs. creation) are the exact battles being fought in court right now between artists and AI companies.
9. Interacting#
The Prediction: Devices will know we are there. VR and AR will let us interact with computers using our whole bodies.
The Reality: C+ This is the slowest trend. Siri and Alexa are still surprisingly dumb at “conversation.” VR/AR is growing, but we are not yet in the Ready Player One era he hinted at. We still mostly interact by tapping on glass with our thumbs, just like we did in 2012.
10. Tracking#
The Prediction: Total surveillance is inevitable. The internet is a copy machine; it tracks everything it touches. He hoped for “coveillance” (citizens watching the watchers) to balance it.
The Reality: A (on the tech), D (on the social outcome) We are tracked everywhere. Our watches track our pulse; our phones track our location; our browsers track our thoughts. But the “coveillance” part hasn’t really happened. It’s mostly just big tech and governments watching us. We have traded privacy for convenience, exactly as he said we would, but few people feel good about it.
11. Questioning#
The Prediction: Answers are becoming free (Google/Wikipedia). The real value in the future will be asking the right questions.
The Reality: A+ (Prescient!) This was a profound insight. In the age of AI, “Prompt Engineering” is literally the skill of asking the right question. If you ask ChatGPT a bad question, you get a generic answer. If you ask a great question, you get magic. The ability to frame a query is now a high-value job skill.
12. Beginning#
The Prediction: We are just at the beginning. A planetary-scale nervous system is forming. Future people will look back at 2016-2046 as the “founding era.”
The Reality: Pass Hard to grade since we are in it, but with the dawn of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) potentially on the horizon, it certainly feels like a beginning. The internet of 2016 looks quaint compared to the AI-infused web of today.
Summary Grade: A-#
Kevin Kelly is rarely wrong about the vector of technology, even if he is sometimes too optimistic about the vibe. He correctly identified that AI, access-over-ownership, and the flow of data would dominate our lives. If you want to understand 2030, you should probably still be reading this book!